False Signals of Declining Scarcity

This article

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/reynolds/MineralEconomy.htm (digg)
says that for certain types of finite resources (where there is uncertainty in the remaining amount), the market can result in a low price for the resource until at some point, there is a correction leading to a price spike. Is this the case for oil today? Is this theory accepted in academic economics?

Here is a related post:

http://thenewbusinessworld.blogspot.com/2007/01/low-oil-price-rising-concern-of-oil.html
But it seems to say that the decrease is due to cyclical factors (high price => more wells => high supply => low price => ... ), which is different than the above article.